On 11 August, Federal Supreme Court (STF) Minister Alexandre de Moraes authorized the Federal Police to complete an operation targeting close allies of the former President Jair Bolsonaro, like reserve General Mauro Cid. Nevertheless, the case is still in its initial phases and Bolsonaro has not even been indicted.
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Findings
The Federal Police inquiry found indications that the leadership of the previous government may have committed crimes of embezzlement and money laundering, by staying with valuable items given during official trips abroad and attempting to sell them for a profit without declaring the values.
Still in Investigative Phase
At the moment, however, there is not even a formal complaint, and the case is still in the investigation phase —during which the framework of the criminal conducts can still be changed. Pretrial detention, on the other hand, does not depend on a conviction, but could only occur in cases of danger to the investigation or proven risk of flight —and in a scenario where other precautionary measures prove insufficient.
Thus, in a short term, the former President could only go to jail if justice authorities see the possibility of escape, fear of tampering with evidence or witnesses.
7 September and the Threat of Protests
The Army and the Secretariat of Public Security of the Federal District have been monitoring the mobilization of supporters of the former President that plan to carry out protests against President Lula (PT) during the civic-military parade on Independence Day, on 7 September.
The military intelligence assessment is that supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) have been divided between two groups: one that supports the idea of going to the parade, in Brasília, to boo Lula and the Armed Forces, and another that considers it more appropriate empty the event, as a message that the current President does not have popular support.
Bolsonaro supporters are not only dissatisfied with Lula, but the Armed Forces is also a target. The group feel betrayed by those they think should have carried out a coup against Lula. Thus, they think deserve the military must “feel the contempt” during the parades.
Analysis:
The ongoing inquiry that investigates the sales of jewelry gifted to former President Jair Bolsonaro during international trips have significant chances of leading to his arrest, according to legal experts. The idea gained momentum after the operations carried out by Federal Police that targeted several high-ranking members of the previous government. If this really occurs, there is a moderate chance of social turmoil and demonstrations across the country.