According to a report prepared by Overhaul Intelligence Center, the majority of cargo theft and robbery events that took place in Brazil in Q2 2023 occurred in the Southeast region, with São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro remaining the most critical states. In general terms, after this result, experts expect that the year 2023 ends with a greater number of events than there were in 2022, thus continuing tendency to return to the levels faced before the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The report analyzed the attacks on cargo in terms of patterns geographic areas of concentration, days of the week and times of greatest concentration, types of cargo most stolen and modus operandi most used by gangs. It was also analyzed whether the robberies occurred in warehouses, at road stops or while vehicles were in transit.
Quadrants
According to the survey, if the country is divided into four quadrants, 87% of cargo thefts were concentrated in the Quadrant 4 (C4), which includes the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Goiás. This concentration has been maintained over recent years and demonstrates the strong relationship between cargo theft/robbery and regions where there is greater circulation of goods.
Regional Analysis
In the second quarter of 2023, 79% of occurrences of cargo theft were concentrated in the Southeast region. Not much different from the first quarter of this year where the concentration was 80%.
10 states with the highest volume of Cargo Theft
The report shows that out of 27 federative units – states and the capital –, 10 represent 98% of the incidents that occurred in the second quarter of 2023. However, only the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, together, concentrated 76% of cases, two percentage points more than what was seen in the first quarter of 2023.
Incidents by Day and Time
In the months of April, May and June 2023, cargo thefts/robberies were concentrated from Tuesday to Friday. Tuesday was the critical day, with 23% of the cases.
As for the times of the day, a pattern similar to the first quarter of 2023 remained, with the highest incidence of events in the morning between 06h00 and noon, with 59%. This greater concentration happens due to the higher incidence of attacks against e-commerce deliveries and other delivery operations that start in the early hours of the morning.
Incidents by Product Type
Regarding the behavior of cargo theft in relation to the types of loads most affected in the second quarter, miscellaneous (loads of different types being transported together) were the most targeted with 44% of events. Food and Beverages (18%), Tobacco (11%), Electronics (7%) and agricultural products (6%).
Trend
In Brazil, it was noticed an increase in cargo theft incidents in distribution operations urban and/or e-commerce, which are normally carried out by local gangs that normally do not have high levels of specialization. They normally approach vehicles when they are stopped.
Analysis:
With the approval of the new fiscal framework; the consecutive decrease of the country’s basic interest rate; increased governmental expenses, particularly in the social sector with the R$ 600,00 Bolsa Família; the launching of the new economic growth acceleration program (PAC); the plans to reactivate the development of the local industry sector and the perspective of approving the tributary reform; there are significant chances of a relevant economic growth in the coming years. An indication of that are the consecutive increases in the GDP results, which even led the government to change, in September, the growth forecasted for 2023 from 2.5% to 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Central Bank forecast moved from 2.0% to 2.9%. Therefore, an expansion in the transport of cargo is expected too, as well as the criminal actions that seek to profit by attacking the vehicles transporting cargo. This scenario makes integrated planning involving operations (supply chain) and risk management practices a priority for organizations operating in the country, particularly in the Southeast.
Source: Overhaul Intelligence Center.
