President Lula (PT) continues the long journey of negotiations to obtain political support in Congress. This week, he will meet with leaders of the Progressist Party (PP) and the Republicans party next week to advance the arrangements that should decide which of the current ministers will have to leave to give space for those that will be appointed by these two parties.
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Main Objective
To ensure greater tranquility in Congress, the government needs to greatly expand its allies in the Federal Chamber and a little in the Senate. For the approval of projects, the votes of 257 federal deputies and 41 senators are required. For the approval of constitutional amendment projects, 308 federal deputies and 49 senators are needed. However, today the government has a base of 225 deputies and 42 senators.
Today Lula has a fragile and insufficient support base in Congress, while PP and Republicans have a natural resistance to the current President for having integrated the support base of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Both are part of the political group known as the “Centrão” and have among its members important political articulators, such as Federal Chamber President Arthur Lira, member of the PP.
The Republicans, for its turn, has Deputy Marcos Pereira as president, who is pre-candidate for the presidency of the Chamber in an election scheduled for February 2025, when Lira will leave office.
Media sources state that Federal Deputies Fufuca and Silvio Costa Filho (Republicans) will be appointed ministers in ministerial reform. The point that is still unclear is which ministries they will lead. The desired ministries are: Social Development Ministry and the Sports Ministry.
Déjà Vu
In his two past mandates, Lula experienced the same dilemma, having to exonerate his own appointments to put in their place individuals selected by potential allies who were being courted in the name of political stability and capacity to govern properly.
One year after assuming his first term, he dismissed six ministers. It was the first ministerial reform, in January 2004. The reform was necessary to make room for the PMDB (today, MDB), which sealed a lasting alliance with the PT from then on. In June 2005, he dismissed Olívio Dutra (PT) from the Cities Ministry to obtain PP’s support.
Evangelical Public
Outside Congress, the government is seeking to expand support from groups that were mostly aligned with the opposition. A task force of ministers was constituted with the mission of designing and putting into practice a strategy to approach the evangelical public, still refractory to the president. According to media sources, Lula was convinced of the need to define a specific tactic for the segment, whose agenda is associated with the leader of the previous government.
Good Relations with the Judiciary
Recent measures taken by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) ministers suggest that at least among the members of the Judiciary Power the current government has solidified a good relation. STF Ministers changed their position and gave recent decisions interpreted behind the scenes as attempts to approach and maintain a good relationship with the federal government.
Minister Luis Roberto Barroso changed his position in relation to a member of Lula’s first echelon – Regional Development Minister Waldez Góes – and supported the annulment of a conviction for embezzlement ruled by the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) in 2019. In a judgment with a direct impact on one of the main support pillars of the PT, Minister Gilmar Mendes changed a vote previously given to defend the collection of assistance contributions from non-union workers.
