On Friday (30/06), the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) condemned by 5 votes against 2 former President Jair Bolsonaro for abuse of power and made him ineligible for eight years. The trial results will likely have a great impact on the political scenario of Brazil, since it removes from the political dispute President Lula’s greatest contender and leader of the opposition. The condemnation can still be questioned at the Federal Supreme Court (STF).
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Consequences
The President will not be able to run for municipal elections in 2024 and state and national elections in 2026. However, the former president will not be arrested, because this action in the TSE is not criminal.
The Case
The trial judged electoral offenses committed by former President Bolsonaro – abuse of political power and misuse of the media. These offenses were committed when the former President attacked the credibility of the electoral system during a presentation to dozens of foreign ambassadors at a meeting in Brasília. Without presenting evidence, he argued that the system has been rigged and was prone to frauds. The event took place on 18 July 2022, at Palácio da Alvorada, and it was broadcasted on TV Brasil, and shared on social networks. After the episode, the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) filed this lawsuit against Bolsonaro’s ticket, formed by the former president and his vice-president, General Walter Braga Netto (PL).
Appeals and Alternatives
Despite being convicted at the TSE, Bolsonaro can appeal to the TSE itself or to the Federal Supreme Court (STF). The former president’s defense has already announced that he intends to appeal.
Congressmen allied to Bolsonaro will propose a project to grant amnesty to former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Who leads the idea is Federal Deputy Sanderson (PL-RS). According to him, the text should provide amnesty for all electoral crimes without violence and without corruption committed in the 2022 elections.
Message
By understanding that Bolsonaro used the power of his office to try to benefit and discredit the Brazilian electoral system, political experts assessed that the TSE sent a message to future rulers. The court warned that the President of the Republic is not an ordinary citizen, thus he has the obligation to defend the institutions, not weaken them.
Our Analysis:
Even though the project to amnesty Bolsonaro has constitutional provision, it will likely face difficulties to be approved, mainly in the Senate, where the current Government has significant support. Furthermore, it would need President Lula’s sanction or the overthrow of the veto by Congress with an absolute majority quorum. Meanwhile, the former President may be able to use divergences in the TSE verdict to appeal at the STF. Among the different views of the TSE ministers that can be used, there are: the discussion about whether or not the inclusion, in the process, of the so-called “draft of the coup” – documents that indicate a plan to carry out a coup and that were found with allies of the former President – was regular or not; the debate on the seriousness of the meeting, that is, whether the former president’s conduct had the potential to tarnish the outcome of the election; the discussion about the occurrence of abuse of purpose and misuse of power in Bolsonaro’s act. However, since Bolsonaro is not well perceived by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) due to the attacks carried out by him during his mandate, his appeal may find barriers there too.
If the condemnation of Bolsonaro is not reversed, it may open space for the emergence of a new political leader. Many believe that this politician could be São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Despite being a member of the same political movement, Freitas is seen as much more predictable and more moderate. In addition, it would have better relations with the Judiciary Power, including STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes, against whom Bolsonaro fought several political battles during his mandate.
Source: G1 [1], [2], [3], [4], [5]; Folha de SP [1], [2]; O Globo.
